TED University: Jimmy Guterman on Serendipitous Success

I have great admiration for the bloggers such as Bruno Giussani and Ethan Zuckerman who provided detailed session-by-session coverage of TED in real time.  This year I took notes via Twitter and now, with the luxury of time, I'll reflect on a few things that were particularly memorable.

One of the recent innovations at TED is TED University, a series of twelve minute talks on a wide range of topics, a two hour version of the Independent Activities Period (IAP) every January at MIT.

One of my favorite talks was by Jimmy Guterman on Why Screwing Up is the Smartest Thing You Can Do.  Guterman described how while everyone plans for success, a lot of good discoveries come by accident, such as:

  • The villain Killer Bob in Twin Peaks was created during the filming of the pilot when a mirror in the final scene accidently caught the reflection of Set Decorator Frank Silva.  Rather than re-shoot the scene, Director David Lynch wrote Bob into the script.
  • Twitter was a side project at Obvious Corp.
  • Penicillin was discovered when a contaminant kept a bacterial culture from growing.
  • John Harvey Kellogg discovered corn flakes while trying to process some stale wheat.
  • Posti-it Notes came about as the result of a glue that was less sticky than originally desired.
  • The feedback on I Feel Fine was a recording mistake that the Beatles decided to leave in, a trend that was widely copied by Jimi Hendrix, the Who, and many others.
  • Viagra was intended as a treatment for angina.

The point is that in the desire to prevent failure, one must be careful not to engineer out the serendipitous  success.  Sort of a corollary to "Iterate in the market, not the conference room."

Why We Don’t Understand as Much as We Think We Do

Be very, very careful what you put into that head, because you will never, ever get it out.
--Thomas Wolsey, 1471-1530

That quote was the inspiration for a talk by Jonathan Drori at TED University on the topic of Why We Don’t Understand as Much as We Think We Do.   For the second consecutive year at TED, the conference was preceded by a series of twelve-minute "courses" on everything from How to Fly a Helicopter Indoors to Making the Most of Web 2.0.

In his talk, Drori offered some examples of problems where intuition leads most people astray:

  • When a seed grows into a tree, where does most of the material come from?  (Wrong answer: the soil.)
  • How do you make an electrical circuit with only a battery, a light bulb, and one piece of wire?  (He showed a video of recent MIT Electrical Engineering graduates who couldn't figure this out.)
  • Why is Winter colder than Summer?  (Wrong answer: because the earth is further away from the sun in Winter.)
  • Draw a diagram showing the shape of the orbits of the planets.  (Wrong answer: they are ellipses.)

When I tried these same questions on most people, they got the answers wrong, but in defense of MIT, all three people I know who went there got all three answers correct.  Perhaps being out in the real world for a few years gave them the practical experience to apply their theoretical knowledge, or maybe I've just hired people who fooled around with electricity before they embarked on an education filled with more math than hands-on experience.

The correct answers:

  • The mass of the tree comes from the air.  If you recall photosynthesis from high-school biology, the energy from the sun enables the chlorophyll in the leaves to separate the carbon and the oxygen from the carbon dioxide in the air.  The  Carbon is combined with the much lighter hydrogen in the water to form hydrocarbons which are the basis of all organic materials, including wood.
  • To light the bulb, touch one end of the wire to one end of the battery.  Wrap the other end around the threads of the bulb.  Then touch the other contact at the end of the bulb directly to the other contact at the end of the battery.
  • The seasons are caused by the angle of the earth.  The rays in the Summer hemisphere strike more directly than the rays in the Winter hemisphere.
  • The orbits are pretty much circular.  People often draw ellipses for two reasons:  1.  They have seen all those illustrations in books that try to look three-dimensional by projecting the circular orbits on a plane not parallel to those orbits; and 2. they think that the Earth must be further from the Sun in the Winter, not thinking about how it's Summer in the other hemisphere at the same time.

CeltAt the end of the class, Drori handed out a small plastic toy which I later learned is called a Rattleback or Rebellious Celt.  If you spin it counterclockwise, it rotates well enough, but if you spin it clockwise, it turns a few times before it starts to rock back and forth and then, astonishingly, start to spin in the other direction.   You can see a video here.   The physics have intrigued scientists for at least a century until Hermann Bondi published a The Rigid Body Dynamics of Unidirectional Spin in 1986.   Jeremy Webb attempts to explain it here, but you can't really understand it without doing the math.

Why TED Works

I will post some more in the future about some of the most memorable presentations at the recent TED conference, but first it is worth contemplating why the conference is such a success - why 1,000 otherwise busy, accomplished individuals will commit a year in advance to spend the better part of a week in Monterey, California, pretty much disconnected from email, conference calls, and the demands of their day jobs.  It comes down to three things, the program, the audience, and the venue.

While the list of speakers this year included the occasional mega-celebrity, such as Bill Clinton, Paul Simon, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Richard Branson, most of them are more likely to be known within a select community, such as Murray Gell-Mann (Nobel Prize in physics), John Doerr (known to everyone at in the computer industry), and Erin McKean (known to everyone in the dictionary business).  Sometimes the work is better known than the author, such as Michael Pollan's Omnovore's Dilemma, J.J. Abrams' Lost, or Maira Kalman's New Yorker covers.  Regardless of one's profession, some talks will be directly relevant (for the computer industry, the BumpTop and Multi-Touch user interfaces), some will be thought-provoking (John Maeda on simplicity), and others will be mind-expanding (Murray Gell-Mann on beauty as a criteria for judging scientifc theories.)  The sessions are no longer than two hours, and the speakers can be counted on to stay within their allotted times (usually 18 minutes) and refrain from sales pitches.  The most warmly received are those that give some insight into the speaker's passion for the subject, whether it be curing hunger or shooting things into outer space.  This year the program included a number of shorter talks that were slotted in whenever there was five minutes to spare.  Some were quite memorable, such as John Doerr's presentation on amateur rocketry or John Flowers' pictures of a Thai temple of the afterlife.

It has often been said that TED is the only conference where the attendees are even more impressive than the speakers.  Certainly the audience includes many founders of big internet and software companies (Amazon, Google, eBay, PayPal, Priceline) and a smattering of movie stars (Cameron Diaz, Goldie Hawn, Meg Ryan, Forest Whitaker), but actually one can turn to any attendee at random and be guaranteed of having an interesting conversation and perhaps finding a future business partner or even a new lifelong friend.  The two most common questions (recommended as conversation starters) are:  "Have you been to TED before?"  (usually yes) and "Are you coming next year?" (almost always yes, although this year with a sigh about the price tag which has gone up to $6,000 for next year.)   The new management of the conference has made an effort to keep the TED momentum going throughout the year, with local events, periodic mailing of books, a growing web presence, and the TED Prize which supports several projects of potential world-wide import.  Far from diluting the impact of the conference, the new initiatives have given it a sense of purpose and fostered a community which gets people returning year after year.  The latter has become a high-class problem, with the next year's conference selling out a week after registration opened and increasing the pressure to expand the conference.

Steinbeck Forum PlanSince its inception, the TED conference has been held at the Monterey Conference Center in the Steinbeck Forum.  This 494 seat theater has no center aisles.  Instead, it has a wider than usual space between the rows and plush, comfortable seats, each one with an unobstructed view of the stage.  The paradoxical effect is that more interaction occurs among the participants - think of how on an airplane you are more likely to talk to someone if you aren't jammed in next to them in the middle seat in coach.  In recent years, the "simulcast room" was added to hold an overflow crowd of another 500 attendees.  Originally these were people who signed up at the last minute, but the distinction has blurred as the conference has sold out earlier and earlier.  Fortunately, this space has an attraction all its own - outfitted with comfortable furniture (including a bed with monitors on the ceiling), large HD screens, and interesting interactive exhibits of art and technology, such as a Tesla electric car.  Attendees with simulcast room badges are allowed into the main hall if space is available.  While this has led to some grumbling, it does eliminate the depressing effect of half-empty halls one sees on the last day of most conferences.  There has been some discussion of finding a new, larger venue but it will be a challenge to find a place that will provide the same level of intimacy that has kept the TED community going all these years.

I'll write some more on the conference highlights.  In the meantime, Bruno Giussani has covered the conference extensively on his blog.

 

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